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Estimates of uncertainty around budget forecasts

Working Paper 2013-04

Release date: 18 November 2013

John Clark, Caroline Gibbons, Susan Morrissey, Joshua Pooley, Emily Pye, Rhett Wilcox and Luke Willard | Working Paper | ISBN: 978-0-642-74945-1

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Treasury Working Paper 340KB

We use past forecast errors to construct confidence intervals around Australian Government Budget forecasts of key economic and fiscal variables. These confidence intervals provide an indication of the extent of uncertainty around the point estimate forecasts presented in the Budget.

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