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Review of Treasury Macroeconomic and Revenue Forecasting

Release date: 22 February 2013

December 2012 | ISBN: 978-0-642-74883-6

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Review of Treasury Macroeconomic and Revenue Forecasting - Full Download 2.0MB
Letter of Transmission 291KB 4.3MB
Terms of Reference 19KB 151KB
Executive Summary 145KB 5.4MB
Recommendations of the Treasury Forecasting Review 25KB 175KB
Section 1: Background 49KB 90KB
Section 2: Appropriateness of Forecasting Methodology 156KB 117KB
Section 3: Quality and Accuracy of Forecast Performance 357KB 446KB
Section 4: Case Studies 325KB 526KB
Attachment A: Recommendations of the 2005 Forecasting Review 41KB 270KB
Attachment B: Further Detail of Macroeconomic Forecasting Practices 56KB 222KB
Attachment C: Further Detail of Revenue Forecasting Practices 53KB 273KB
Attachment D: Macroeconomic Forecasting Performance 148KB 5.2MB
Attachment E: Revenue Forecasting Performance 178KB 8.1MB

The Review has:

  • assessed the quality of Treasury’s macroeconomic and revenue forecasts by examining the appropriateness of forecasting methodologies and, data permitting, comparing forecast accuracy with other forecasters, both in Australia and overseas, over periods between 1990‑91 and 2011‑12; and
  • prepared two case studies, which relate to the most recent challenges confronting forecasters, namely Mining Boom Mark I (2003‑04 to 2007‑08) and the GFC and Mining Boom Mark II (2008‑09 to 2011‑12).

The report was prepared by the Secretariat established within the Treasury for that purpose. The Secretariat has authored the report and is responsible for the data, analysis and commentary in the report. The Advisory Panel has played an oversight role, including providing comments and suggestions to the Secretariat on the scope and content of the report. In addition, the Advisory Panel has prepared the Executive Summary which includes a number of recommendations and suggestions for further improving the Treasury’s forecasting processes going forward.

© Commonwealth of Australia 2012

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Review of Treasury Macroeconomic and Revenue Forecasting
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