Appendix B: Sensitivity analysis of long-run economic and fiscal projections

Table B1: Assumptions underlying sensitivity analysis

(a) Male and female age specific participation rates held constant at 2006‑07 levels from 2013‑14.
(b) All male and female age specific participation rates are adjusted to achieve an increase of 5 per cent in total participation rates for population aged 15 and over.
(c) Growth in age specific participation rates is increased by 10 per cent for workers in the age cohorts of 50‑54, 55‑59, 60‑64 and 65‑69, giving a total participation rate (15+) of 62.0 per cent in 2049-50.
(d) Represents the average productivity rate in the 1980s.
(e) Uses IGR 2007 life expectancy projections.
(f) All the improvement factors are scaled by 1.625 for men and 1.5 for women.
Source: Treasury projections.

Table B2: Impact of alternative scenarios

(a) Represents the percentage point difference in the average annual growth rate for the period 2009‑10 to 2049‑50, compared to the base scenario.
(b) Represents the percentage change in the size of the labour force and the level of GDP and GDP per capita by 2049‑50 compared to the base scenario.
(c) Percentage point change in 2049‑50 compared to the base scenario.
(d) The potential impact of higher or lower productivity growth on Australian government health spending is difficult to quantify and has not been included here.
Source: Treasury projections.

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